Japanese Economy in Transition
2018/06/27
Ryoichi Imai
International Student Center, Kyushu University
imai.ryoichi.303（～）m.kyushu-u.ac.jp
Outline
We discuss the latest issues in Japanese economy. The course consists of two parts. In the first half, we review the mechanism and the consequence of the global financial crisis since 2008. In the second half we discuss the current debates such as energy policy, youth unemployment, and fiscal crisis in the politico-economic context.
Requirements and Grading
Assessment (in parenthesis)
1. One presentation of the selected issues. You have to make a set of slides using Microsoft PowerPoint or equivalent software. (40%)
2. One final take-home examination –subject to change. (40%)
3. Regular attendance and participation in class discussion. (20%)
You can get two credits by completing all the requirements described above. Some students need three credits in order to transfer credits in accordance with their home university's academic rule. In that case, you have to do two presentations, which will be specified in the later stage of the course.
Schedule
The class will start with a series of my lecture. Later students will present their assignments in the class. A detailed weekly plan will be announced soon.
Sorry, most readings are in Japanese m(_
_)m
1(4/5). Kyushu Economy in the
World
Introduction to the Kyushu Economy for
International Investors
Summary of Kyushu Economy 2015
2(4/12). Revitalizing Regional Economy
Japan Revitalization Strategy
National Strategic Special Zones (in Japanese)
Takatoshi Tabuchi (2013) Historical Trends of agglomeration to the
capital region (in English)
Definition of Urban Area by the Ministry of
Internal Affairs (in Japanese)
Demographia
World Urban Area 2015
Population
Concentration on Urban Area (in Japanese)
Working population across industries by
prefectures (in Japanese)
GDP
by prefectures
Productivity Convergence across Prefectures in
Postwar Japan
Scale Economy in Agriculture (in Japanese)
3 (4/19). Urban-Regional Redistribution and the Heisei
Municipal Mergers
The benefit/cost ratio by prefectures
Transfer through the special account for road
maintenance
Regional gap in the consumption tax revenue
National Tax Agency State-Regional Division of Income Taxes
(J)
- State-Regional Division of Consumption Taxes
(J)
Takero Doi (2010) Poverty traps with Local Allocation Tax
grants in Japan (in English, but technical)
Takero Doi (2006) Interregional Income Redistribution
Reconsidered (J)
Kazuhiko Tomiyama
(2014) Sectoral Change in Industries and Higher
Education Reform (J)
Koyotaka KOICHI
(????) Development of Municipal Mergers in Japan
(in English)
Municipal Mergers and Dissolutions in Japan
(in English)
Anthony Raush
(2010) Post Heisei Merger in Japan (E)
Before and After the Heisei Municipal
Mergers (J)
Yubari, Japan: a city learns how to die (E)
Dani Rodrik (2010) Greek Lessons for the World Economy
(E)
Population,
area, density by prefectures (J)
Aging
ranking by municipals (J)
Regional
average income ranking by municipals (J)
Regional average income tax revenue ranking by
municipals (J)
Municipals
in Tokyo (J)
Regional average income tax revenue ranking by
municipals in Tokyo (J)
Osaka
referendum causes turbulence for LDP, Komeito
Redistribution within Osaka City
(J)
4 (4/26) Regional Gaps in
Economy
Regional Gaps in EU, US, and Japan
Nominal GDP per capita in Europe
Real GDP per capita in the world
Prefectural income per capita in Japan
List of US states by GDP per capita
Student commutes to University of London from
Poland to save money on accommodation rent
CPI
by prefecture in Japan
International Comparison of CPI
5 (5/10). Tourism
Annual
Report on Tourism 2014 (J)
Policies on Tourism 2010 (J)
Concentration
of Tour Demands (J)
Economic Impacts of Tourism (J)
Dispersing
the National Holidays (J)
Yoshiro Hoshino (2015) Holidays must be dispersed (J)
Hoshino
Resorts TOMAMU (J)
NHK(2014) Is it possible to disperse holidays?
(J)
Agriturism in Ukiha, Fukuoka (J)
Ukiha-city
(J)
6 (5/17). Short Lecture on Japan’s Automobile Industry
(4/20)
Japan’s UNESCO World Heritage Page
Miike
Coal Mines (J)
Gunkanjima
Concierge (J)
Hanako to Anne (Episode 95)
Toyota has an amazing History Page!
Toyota Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles
WSJ on hydrogen stations
WSJ on the hydrogen-powered car: Mirai.
The Telegraph: Toyota’s driverless car
7 (5/24). Urban and Nationwide Railway Transportation
On
the Effects of the Shinkansen (J)
Economic Consequences of the Shinkansen
(J)
passenger
transportation share by vehicles (J)
distribution
traffic share by vehicles (J)
Accounting Report on JR Shikoku 2015
(J)
Accounting Report on JR Hokkaido 2015
(J)
Accounting
Report on JR Kyushu 2014 (J)
JR
Kyushu should not be listed on TSE before it pays back its debts (J)
Government decides to list JR Kyushu on TSE in
2016 (J)
Balance of Payment of JR
Groups: East West
Japan Railway Construction, Transport and
Technology Agency (J)
Kansai Prefectural Governors approve the
Maibara Route (J)
Seven Stars in Kyushu
Private
Resort – Tenku no Mori
Tour
Trains of JR Kyushu (J)
8 (5/31) Young People Move across Prefectures
University Capacity in Japan
Regional Gaps in Higher Education
Private
Universities in Japan
Nagano University
Higher Education Opportunities in Nagano
Prefecture
Students Life Survey by JASSO
Students Accommodation by type of Universities
OECD: Education at a Glance (2017)
(A7) What are the financial incentives to
invest in education?
PDF
Kazunori Shima (2017) Returns to invest in
higher education in Japan (J)
Area Ranking of Universities in Japan
10 (6/7). Abenomics and Japan’s growth strategy
International companies do not always create
employment or bring tax revenues to the US.
Where is the productivity growth?
Ideas aren’t running out, but they are getting
more expensive to find | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal
The productivity slowdown and labour’s income
share
The safe asset shortage, the rise of mark-ups, and
the decline in the labour share
Labor share is declining in G7 economies
Changes in Industries and Occupations –
Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare
Nordhaus (2016) Are we approaching an economic
Singularity?
解雇規制を考える – A Short Lecture
for High School Students
Krugman (1996) Wonders of technology not so wondrous
The Unofficial Paul Krugman Archive
11 (6/14). Abenomics and Its
Consequences
The 10-year maturity government bonds of Japan
The Kuroda’s
announcement on April 4th amazed the western media
Iida’s comments on the consumption tax rate
rise
Macroeconomics supporting Abenomics
Jordi Gali
(2014) Thinking
the unthinkable: The effects of a money-financed fiscal stimulus
(2015) Start the presses: reconsidering a
money-financed fiscal stimulus
(2014) The
Effects of a Money-Financed Fiscal Stimulus
4
Signs of Abenomics' Dismal Failure
Nikkei Average
(Tokyo Stock Exchange)
JGB
10 yrs rate
JGB
10 yrs rate
JGB
average
The leading
advocate for NIRP:
Miles Kimball (2016) Negative
Interest Rate Policy as Conventional Monetary Policy
Japan Times: The
NIRP is unpopular
Unemployment Rate
Labor Market
Tightness
Record
97% of university graduates land jobs
Monthly
Employment Survey April 2016
Monthly Employment Survey
GDP per person employed (constant 2011 PPP $)
GDP Accounting of Japan (内閣府) (2014-EXCEL)
Consumers’
Price Index (CPI) (総務省) April 2016
Fiscal
Balance –International Comparison
Simulation - Tokyo Foundation Model
Consumption
Level Index
BOJ Consumption Index (J)
Why do real wages stagnate even
though the labor share of GDP remains constant?
Kawaguchi (2016) Real Wages and Terms of Trade (J)
Philips
Curve in Japan
Real GDP per person employed in Japan
Fiscal Consolidation
Tax revenues are not enough to cover the
expenses
Government budget for 2016 Slide
International Comparison of Government Debts
Deficits in Central and Regional Governments
How consumption tax revenues are shared by
central and regional governments
12 (6/21). Review
Part II: Students'
Presentations
13 (6/28) Innovation
1. Ideas aren’t running out, but they are getting
more expensive to find | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal (Morgane)
2. Routinisation, globalisation, and the fall in
labour’s share of income (Clara)
3. Concentrating on the Fall of the Labor Share
(Rochelle)
a What is the tendency that is
observed in the US economy, which contradicts one of the famous Five Stylized
Facts, pointed out by Kaldor (1961)?
b Why is international trade not an
important reason for the decrease in the labor share of the US economy?
c Why is the rapid decline in the
prices of information and communication technology equipments not consistent
with the decline in the labor share?
d What is the new hypothesis the
authors propose in order to explain the decline in the labor share?
14 (7/5) Economic Policy
Debates
1. Understanding the destination-based approach to
business taxation (Mathieu)
2. Monetary policy and inequality: A new channel
(Nicolas)
3. The US corporate tax cut debate (James)
15 (7/19) Industrial
Transformation
1.
The 1990s trade and wages debate in retrospect
(Ya-Hsuan)
2. The declining share of manufacturing jobs (James)
3. Tax evasion and inequality (Extra)
(Yarrow)
4. Aggregate
productivity and the rise of mark-ups
①
How should we decompose the factors of economic growth, if the
economy is not perfectly competitive?
② “From a social perspective,
low-mark-up firms are too large and high-mark-up firms are too small”. What does this mean?
③ Consider an industry consisting of Firm 1 with a higher mark-up ratio, and Firm 2 with a lower mark-up ratio. What will happen if there is a productivity improvement in Firm 1?
④ Why does “eliminating
mark-ups would raise aggregate productivity by around 40%”?
⑤
Why did Harberger (1954) under-estimate the allocative loss caused
by monopoly than the research by the authors?
⑥
What is the positive effect of monopoly to improve productivity
that works in an opposite direction to the allocative efficiency discussed as
above?
⑦ “Eliminating mark-ups in
1997 would have only raised aggregate productivity by around 5%-20%”. Why?
Final Take-Home Examination (New 2018)
Miscellaneous Topics
A
short lecture on Kabuki 2015
Shochiku
Kabuki Website
Kabuki
Actors (Current)
Hakata-za
Theater
Kabuki on NHK
How to watch NHK World TV
Ministry of Economy, Trade,
and Industry (2014) Contents Industry: Today and the Future
(J)
Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (2010) Toward Economic Prosperity based on Cultural
Industry (J)
The
Economics of Orchestras
Association of
Japanese Symphony Orchestras (J)
Annual Report of
the Members 2013 (J)
Annual Report of the Members 2004
(J)
Financial Reports of the New Japan
Philharmonic Orchestra (J)
League of American Orchestras
US Orchestra Facts
March 2015
Energy Crisis and
Local Economies
Healthcare Cost
Control in Japan
International
Comparison of Medicare System (J)
In Japan, All-Payer Rate Setting Under
Tight Government Control Has Proved To Be An Effective Approach To Containing Costs
Kuroda (2013) Working Hours in Japan (J)
Prescott (2002) Prosperity and Depression
Daily Routines of Famous Creative People
The Economics of
Two-Sided Markets
Rochet and Tirole (2003) Platform Competition
in Two-Sided Markets
Evans, Hagiu, and Schmalensee (2006) Invisible Engines
Hagiu (2004) Two-Sided Platforms: Pricing and Social
Efficiency
Anderson and Coate (2005) Market Provision of Broadcasting: A Welfare
Analysis
The Increasing Share of E-commerce
(J)
Abe’s economic advisor
reveals his cautious view on the China leading AIIB
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