Japanese Economy in
Transition
Ryoichi
Imai
Kyushu University
2021/06/12
New Schedule for Spring 2021
Outline
We discuss the latest issues in Japanese economy. The course consists of two parts.
1. The regional revitalization of Japan, income redistribution between urban and regional areas.
2. The growth strategy and innovation.
Requirements and Grading Assessment (in parenthesis)
1. One presentation of the selected issues. You have to make a set of slides using Microsoft PowerPoint or equivalent software. (40%)
2. One final take-home examination –subject to change. (40%)
3. Regular attendance and participation in class discussion. (20%)
You can get two credits by completing all the requirements described above. Some students need three credits in order to transfer credits in accordance with their home university's academic rule. You can get three credits by making a second presentation in different topics in addition to the requirements as above.
Schedule
The class will start with a series of my lecture. Later students will present their assignments in the class. The detailed weekly plan will depend on how many students take the course.
Sorry,
some readings are in Japanese m(_ _)m
1 (4/13). Introduction
2 (4/20) Kyushu Economy in the World
Introduction to the Kyushu Economy for
International Investors
Summary of Kyushu Economy 2015
3 (4/27) Economic
Geography of Japan
Definition of Urban Area by the
Ministry of Internal Affairs (in Japanese)
Working population across industries by
prefectures (in Japanese)
GDP by prefectures
Productivity Convergence across
Prefectures in Postwar Japan
Japan Revitalization Strategy
National Strategic Special Zones (in
Japanese)
Takatoshi Tabuchi (2013) Historical Trends of agglomeration to
the capital region (in English)
Demographia World Urban Area 2015
Population Concentration on Urban Area (in Japanese)
Scale Economy in Agriculture (in
Japanese)
Engel Coefficient (Ministry of
Internal Affairs)
Engel's coefficient rising in Japan
(Japan Times)
International Comparison of the Engel
Coefficient
International Comparison of
Agricultural Subsidy
4 (5/4) Urban-Regional Redistribution and the
Heisei Municipal Mergers
The benefit/cost ratio by prefectures
Takero
Doi (2010) Poverty traps with Local Allocation Tax
grants in Japan (in English, but technical)
Takero
Doi (2006) Interregional Income Redistribution
Reconsidered (J)
Kazuhiko
Tomiyama (2014) Sectoral Change in Industries and
Higher Education Reform (J)
Municipal Mergers and Dissolutions in
Japan (Wikipedia in English)
Anthony
Raush (2010) Post Heisei Merger in Japan
(E)
Before and After the Heisei Municipal
Mergers (J)
Yubari, Japan: a city learns how to die (E)
Population, area, density by
prefectures (J)
Aging ranking by municipals
(J)
Regional average income ranking by
municipals (J)
Regional average income tax revenue
ranking by municipals
(J)
Regional average income tax revenue
ranking by municipals in Tokyo (J)
Osaka referendum causes turbulence for
LDP, Komeito
5 (5/11). Regional Gaps in Economy
Regional Gaps in EU, US, and Japan
Nominal GDP per capita in Europe
Dani
Rodrik (2010) Greek Lessons for the World Economy
(E)
Real GDP per capita in the world
Prefectural
income per capita in Japan
List of US states by GDP per capita
Student commutes to University of
London from Poland to save money on accommodation rent
CPI by prefecture in Japan
International Comparison of CPI
6 (5/18). Tourism
Annual Report on Tourism (Ministry of Land,
Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism)
Concentration of Tour Demands (J)
Economic Impacts of Tourism
(J)
Dispersing the National Holidays
(J)
Yoshiro Hoshino (2015) Holidays must be dispersed
(J)
Hoshino Resorts TOMAMU (J)
NHK(2014) Is it possible to disperse holidays?
(J)
Agriturism in Ukiha, Fukuoka
(J)
Ukiha-city (J)
7 (5/25) Urban and Nationwide Railway
Transportation
Hayakawa, Koster, Tabuchi, and Thisse (2021) How high-speed rail changes the spatial
distribution of economic activity: Evidence from Japan’s Shinkansen
Koster, Tabuchi, and Thisse (2021) High-speed rail may hurt intermediate
places: The role of long-haul economies
On the Effects of the Shinkansen
(J)
Economic Consequences of the Shinkansen
(J)
passenger transportation share by
vehicles (J)
distribution traffic share by vehicles (J)
Accounting Report on JR Shikoku 2015
(J)
Accounting Report on JR Hokkaido 2015
(J)
Accounting Reports on JR Kyushu
(J)
JR Kyushu should not be listed on TSE before it pays back
its debts (J)
Seven Stars in Kyushu
Private
Resort – Tenku no Mori
Tour Trains of JR Kyushu (J)
8 (6/1) Young People Move across Prefectures
University Capacity in Japan
Regional Gaps in Higher Education
Private Universities in Japan
Nagano University
Higher Education Opportunities in
Nagano Prefecture
Students Life Survey by JASSO
Students Accommodation by type of
Universities
OECD: Education at a Glance (2017)
(A7) What are the financial incentives
to invest in education?
PDF
Kazunori
Shima (2017) Returns to invest in higher education in Japan (J)
Area Ranking of Universities in Japan
11 (6/22) Coronavirus
Pandemic and the Economy: 1
12 (6/29) Coronavirus
Pandemic and the Economy: 2
11 (6/22): Abenomics and Japan’s growth strategy: 1
International
companies do not always create employment or bring tax revenues to the
US.
Where is the productivity growth?
Ideas aren’t running out, but they are
getting more expensive to find | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal
The productivity slowdown and labour’s
income share
The safe asset shortage, the rise of
mark-ups, and the decline in the labour share
Labor share is declining in G7 economies
Changes in Industries and Occupations –
Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare
Nordhaus (2016) Are we approaching an economic Singularity?
Krugman
(1996) Wonders of technology not so wondrous
The
Unofficial Paul Krugman Archive
12 (6/29) Abenomics and Japan’s growth strategy: 2
13 (7/6) r<g
Debate
解雇規制を考える
– A Short Lecture for High School Students
Olivier Blanchard (2019) Public Debts and Low Interest Rates
Fiscal
Consolidation
Tax revenues are not enough to cover
the expenses
Government budget for 2016 Slide
International Comparison of Government
Debts
Deficits in Central and Regional
Governments
How consumption tax revenues are shared
by central and regional governmentsIdeas aren’t running out, but they are
getting more expensive to find
| VOX, CEPR’s Policy
Portal (Morgane)
Students’ Presentation
14 (7/13) Students’ Presentation 1: Corona Virus Pandemic
15 (7/20) Students’
Presentation 2: Regional gap and young people’s move
Course Assignments
I.
Midterm Exam Spring 2021
Due to
Saturday June 5
II.
Take-home
Final Examination NEW ! Due to Sunday July 18
III.
Presentation Slide New !
IV.
Presentation Movie (required only for Yshana and Trinh)
Course
Evaluation
Click and follow the instructions Economy
**************************************************************************
Skipped in this year:
Short Lecture on Japan’s Automobile Industry
(4/20)
Japan’s UNESCO World Heritage Page
Miike Coal Mines (J)
Gunkanjima Concierge (J)
Hanako
to Anne (Episode 95)
Toyota
has an amazing History Page!
Toyota Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles
WSJ on hydrogen stations
WSJ on the hydrogen-powered car: Mirai.
The
Telegraph: Toyota’s driverless car
The 10-year maturity government bonds
of Japan
The Kuroda’s announcement on April 4th amazed the western media
Iida’s comments on the consumption tax
rate rise
Macroeconomics supporting Abenomics
Jordi Gali
(2014) Thinking the unthinkable: The effects
of a money-financed fiscal stimulus
(2015) Start the presses: reconsidering a
money-financed fiscal stimulus
(2014) The Effects of a Money-Financed Fiscal
Stimulus
4 Signs of Abenomics' Dismal Failure
Nikkei Average (Tokyo Stock
Exchange)
JGB 10 yrs rate
JGB 10 yrs rate
JGB average
The
leading advocate for NIRP:
Miles Kimball (2016) Negative Interest Rate Policy as
Conventional Monetary Policy
Japan Times: The NIRP is unpopular
Unemployment Rate Labor Market Tightness
Record 97% of university graduates land
jobs
Monthly Employment Survey April 2016
Monthly Employment Survey
GDP per person employed (constant 2011
PPP $)
GDP Accounting of Japan (内閣府) (2014-EXCEL)
Consumers’ Price Index (CPI)
(総務省) April 2016
Fiscal Balance –International Comparison
Simulation - Tokyo Foundation Model
Consumption Level Index
BOJ Consumption Index (J)
Why do real wages stagnate even though the labor share of
GDP remains constant?
Kawaguchi (2016) Real Wages and Terms of Trade
(J)
Philips Curve in Japan
Real GDP per person employed in Japan
MMT
Bloomberg: Stephanie Kelton
AOKI Yasuki: MMT and the Post-Keynesian
MATSUO Tadasu: Theories of Anti-Austerity Economic
Policy and their Synthesis
Ministry of Finance: The Current States of Japan’s State
Budget Balance
1.
Routinisation, globalisation, and the
fall in labour’s share of income (Clara)
2.
Concentrating
on the Fall of the Labor Share (Rochelle)
a
What is the tendency that is
observed in the US economy, which contradicts one of the famous Five Stylized
Facts, pointed out by Kaldor (1961)?
b
Why is international trade not
an important reason for the decrease in the labor share of the US economy?
c
Why is the rapid decline in
the prices of information and communication technology equipments not
consistent with the decline in the labor share?
d
What is the new hypothesis the
authors propose in order to explain the decline in the labor share?
Economic Policy Debates
1.
Understanding the destination-based
approach to business taxation (Mathieu)
2.
Monetary policy and inequality: A new
channel (Nicolas)
3.
The US corporate tax cut debate
(James)
Industrial Transformation
1.
The 1990s trade and wages debate in
retrospect (Ya-Hsuan)
2.
The declining share of manufacturing
jobs (James)
3.
Tax evasion and inequality
(Extra) (Yarrow)
4.
Aggregate productivity and the rise of
mark-ups
① How should we decompose the factors of economic growth, if the
economy is not perfectly competitive?
② “From a social perspective, low-mark-up firms are too large and
high-mark-up firms are too small”. What does this mean?
③ Consider an industry consisting of Firm 1 with a higher
mark-up ratio, and Firm 2 with a lower mark-up ratio. What will happen if there is a productivity
improvement in Firm 1?
④ Why does “eliminating mark-ups would raise
aggregate productivity by around 40%”?
⑤ Why did Harberger (1954) under-estimate the allocative loss caused
by monopoly than the research by the authors?
⑥ What is the positive effect of monopoly to improve productivity
that works in an opposite direction to the allocative efficiency discussed as
above?
⑦ “Eliminating mark-ups in 1997 would have only raised aggregate
productivity by around 5%-20%”. Why?
Miscellaneous Topics
A short lecture on Kabuki 2015
Shochiku Kabuki Website
Kabuki Actors (Current)
Hakata-za
Theater
Kabuki on NHK
How to watch NHK World TV
Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (2014) Contents Industry: Today and the Future
(J)
Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (2010) Toward Economic Prosperity based on
Cultural Industry (J)
The
Economics of Orchestras
Association of Japanese Symphony
Orchestras (J)
Annual Report of the Members 2013
(J)
Annual Report of the Members 2004 (J)
Financial Reports of the New Japan Philharmonic Orchestra
(J)
League of American Orchestras
US Orchestra Facts March 2015
Energy Crisis and Local Economies
Healthcare Cost Control in Japan
International Comparison of Medicare
System (J)
In Japan, All-Payer Rate Setting Under
Tight Government Control Has Proved To Be An Effective Approach To Containing
Costs
Kuroda
(2013) Working Hours in Japan (J)
Prescott
(2002) Prosperity and Depression
Daily Routines of Famous Creative People
The Economics of Two-Sided Markets
Rochet and Tirole (2003) Platform Competition in Two-Sided
Markets
Evans, Hagiu, and Schmalensee (2006) Invisible Engines
Hagiu (2004) Two-Sided Platforms: Pricing and Social
Efficiency
Anderson and Coate (2005) Market Provision of Broadcasting: A
Welfare Analysis
The Increasing Share of E-commerce (J)
Abe’s economic advisor reveals his
cautious view on the China leading AIIB
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